The first crop of the new decade happens in the context of a chaos world under Corona virus (or Covid-19) pandamic. Despite its massive scale and multidimensional impacts on the global economy; within the frame of this article, lets check its touch on the Vietnam Cassia market alone.
CONTEXT
Emerging in China during January 2020, the virus has spreaded outside China to almost all over the world and put many countries under emergency state. Governments have imposed drastic measures from travelling restrictions and social distancing to complete lock-down. As an inevitable result, the world economies are damaged, trade activities are crippled, supply chains are disrupted, most origins are experiencing weakening currency situations.
DEMAND
From the demand side, spice has yet felt the hard hit of this pandemic as some other industries. India, the biggest buyer, is under lock-down, their import-export activities are badly affected. From the other parts of the world, the orders still comes but slowly. However, to see it in a positive way, although people are staying at home and cannot go to supermarkets, they shop online, and even spend more time cooking and drinking (tea and coffee). Many instructions also point out that to consume more spices in our meals will also help our body to boost up our immune systems, as a natural functional food.
SUPPLY
From the supply side, the unfavorable weather with lots of rain and thunderstorm has delayed the new crop harvesting. Moreover, according to Vietnamese government’s announcement of social distancing on 31-Mar, any gathering of over 2 people in public place is not allowed. Some local authorities have set up many checking points with barriers to restrict the traffic in and out. The cropping activities over cassia hills which often requires a team of 5-10 people to perform, becomes unacceptable now. Therefore, new materials come out in very little volume.
Anyway, with the uncertainty of global demand, manufacturers and traders in Vietnam keep watching, not so eager to stock. With slightly lower price and less orders, the farmers are waiting, not willing to harvest too much.
FORECAST
Last but not least, we would like to share our forecast of cassia price in the next few months. Demand is expected to be limited in a short time but it will rebound quickly once the virus is controlled and countries loosen their restriction measures, probably in May/June. By that time, the Spring crop has come to the ending phase and material volume get less available, which will eventually lead to shortage and price surge. In all, the price of Vietnam Cassia will keep it uptrend despite the temporary slowdown.
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